Job loss due to advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine learning (ML) - Part16
by
RGS Asthana
Life senior, IEEE
Figure 1: Effects of technology on population [18]
Prelude
Over the years, affordability and accessibility of AI/ML technology brought an improved quality of life and a higher average life expectancy in a number of countries. The number of old age people will rise as the ratio between children and old age will change as more and more people are going towards micro and nano families. Figure 1 is based on population data on 65+ age of people for the years 1900 - 2050 of US Bureau of Census.
The main sectors where jobs are deemed to be lost due to advances in AI/ML are automobile, law and medical industry.
The main aim of business is to make money by maximizing profits. Therefore, in today’s context, the business should use technology to [1, 8]to the extent profits increase. Even an iota more technology may, in fact, reduce profits. AI systems and chatbots are getting every task and process better than the existing manual process thus bringing more efficiency and savings in the system. Elon Musk has put fully automated factories in the US to produce the new model 3 of Tesla Electric car. In one of its factories, the company produces 7000 cars per week by June 2018 through initial target was 5000 cars per week and this is only possible due to massive automation of assembly line thus making the project feasible [7]. Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance in Japan has replaced its 34 employees in March 2018, by an AI system that can calculate pay-outs on policyholders [8].
Oxford University researchers estimate that 47% of all current US employment is at high risk to become automated over the next decade or so. The most popular jobs today are [3]: Machine learning engineer – income approx. $142,900 p.a.; Data scientist - income approx. $141,810 p.a.; Research scientist - income approx. $137,710 p.a.; R&D engineer – salary varies; Business intelligence developer - income approx. $136,480 p.a. and Computer vision engineer - income approx. $136,150 p.a. As per Gartner in India, 1.8 million jobs will be eradicated by 2020, but 2.3 million fresh careers will be formed by then [2, 4] due to advances in ML/AI. All routine activities for which people are paid to do today could be automated by 2030 or even earlier [6] thus eliminating such jobs employing ML/AI technologies
As per PwC, about 40 percent of jobs in the U.S. [9] may be lost in the next 14 years due to advancement in robotics alone. If you can get a job to someone it means that the person who has offered the job to someone recommended by you perceives that you do have deemed capacity to reciprocate if required else he would not give/arrange a job for someone recommended by you. We describe in the next section the technologies which have advanced
GPUs, FPGAs are referred to as deep learning accelerators [32]. These are, generally, used in data centers. There also exists an opportunity to use these accelerators for very low power devices. The development of these technologies will allow AI/ML to be used in many IoT devices and appliances. Assisted transportation is next big thing till laws in the USA are fully made to ensure public safety.
Big Data
All routine jobs in the field of Healthcare, insurance, architects, journalists, financial industry teachers, human resources, marketing and advertising, lawyers and para-regals and law enforcement are likely to be lost due to advances in AI/ML [12].
The above-mentioned jobs are professional white collar jobs and are under threat from Big Data through the introduction of smart software or robots. Even the low skilled jobs for workers doing things like taking customer calls i.e. call center will be hit but new jobs like cleaning and repairing cars and trucks, and updating the high-definition maps that cars and truck use to move [13] may get created
Big Data, in fact, is ML/AI’s fuel. It helps train ML/AI system to become powerful and solving complex problems like speech recognition. The intelligence of ML/AI system is a function of the amount of data given to it.
Robotics, transportation, and Automation (in general)
It is expected that about 800 million jobs may be lost due to advances in AI/ML technology by the year 2030 [33]. The most affected areas are likely to be legal, media, publishing, transportation and shopping & retail. Technology, however, will redefine the job profile of certain jobs and they may reappear as new jobs but their number may not be the same as the number of jobs lost [33[.
This change will come as AI/ML is able to make robot interactions with its environment more genuine and trustworthy. Most of the jobs of providing computer-based customer services [30]. Both extremely rich as well as poor countries seem to do better on job management [11] as their populations will get time to prepare for the coming changes. Rich countries will have enough resources to bring automation and prepare their populations whereas poor countries, on the other hand, will anyway have less manufacturing facilities as well as resources that are at risk from automation or due to the introduction of robotics. It is feared that Automation could kill 73 million U.S. jobs by 2030 but these jobs can be offset with rising in productivity as well as other advantages or quantum of new jobs.
By the year 2020, global investment in robotics is expected to be about $180 billion [25]. More intelligent machines with advancement in AI/ML it will be possible to make AI/ML-based machine’s mind, advancements in both fields i.e. ML/AI and robotics Thus robots will perform not only repetitive tasks but will also move freely in unstructured environments like warehouses or factories and will be able to work more closely with humans on assembly lines.
However, robots are going to remove humans from all risk-prone jobs. As per Elon Musk, Too much automation is also not good so one needs to be careful about using automation.
Self-driving car technology is accepted today. Because of the rapid advances in AI/ML technology, manufacturers viz. Ford, Volvo, BMW, and Tesla have already released or are likely to release fully autonomous cars with the self-driving feature. The number is to cross 10 Million (see figure 2) by 2020 [30].
Figure 2 Self-driving cars show cars on the road in 2020 {see [30]}
Healthcare
Doctors are difficult to replace as they provide human touch and confidence to the patient's Analysis can be done on use of robotics based devices to overcome shortage of doctors where population density is very thin or both e.g. in Saskatchewan province in Canada has about 11 medical robots and portable devices [21] used in clinical practice. Robotic nurses [17] will soon become common, particularly in areas where either population is thin or it is not human-friendly.
The recent advances in healthcare, in fact, is responsible for accelerating the growth of AI/ML in areas, such as genomics and precision medicine, digital technologies, changes in reimbursement and a renewed focus on the patient at the center of care [19].
The importance of AI/ML can be accessed from the fact that the radiologists [23] who refuse to work with AI/ML are likely to lose their jobs. The AI/ML use may actually enhance the productivity of radiologists and they will have spare time doing work hour and the radiologist may spend it the way they want e.g. consulting with other physicians about diagnoses and treatment strategies. Hundreds of images can be taken and processed for one patient’s disease or injury because images can be analysed automatically by computers which can see even those areas in images what human eye cannot see because of its physical bandwidth and resolution restrictions thus this process could reduce human labor, lower costs, and improve diagnostic accuracy and can benefit patients and physicians alike.
There were about 38.5K [24] healthcare job cuts in the year 2017, which is about 124 percent increase in job cuts carried out in the year 2016. However, one also needs to think about the effect on the health [20] of the retrenched worker.
Scientists are finding the best way to 3D print human organs for transplant. Northwestern Scientists [31] are finding the best way to 3D print human organs for transplant. Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine and McCormick School of Engineering, the joint team is developing 3D-printed ovaries that can boost hormone production and restore fertility and successfully tested it on mice that not only produced healthy pups but mothers also nursed their young.
The ovaries were 3D printed using Gelatin scaffolding. The team loaded the structures with immature egg cells before implanting them into their test subjects. The main cause of the success lies in the temperature used while 3D printing the structure but the team's biosynthetic ovaries can even be considered for use in humans will take a long time. 3D printing technologies use all type of materials from metals to polymers to biomaterials—materials that mimic living tissue—to create objects.
3D printing is used to customize instruments used by Orthopaedic surgeon specifically for each patient, so he does not bother about so many different sizes into surgery.
University's Feinberg School of Medicine and McCormick School of Engineering, the joint team is developing 3D-printed ovaries that can boost hormone production and restore fertility and successfully tested it on mice that not only produced healthy pups but mothers also nursed their young.
3D printing is used to customize instruments used by Orthopaedic surgeon specifically for each patient, so he need not bother about the size of prosthetic during surgery. Further with a brain-computer interface, a prosthetic device will let paralyzed people walk again if IEEE Member M. Nicolelis [34] achieves success. In fact, He is in the process of developing a real-time interface with a full-body exoskeleton to be controlled by signals from a paraplegic's brain.
Telecom sector
In India alone, up to 60,000 jobs [10] may be lost in a 2018-19 financial year in the telecom industry. It is anticipated that about 30% of jobs will be lost globally [29] in this sector due to advances in AI/ML.
IoT devices and Appliances
As per Gartner report Jan. 2017, the number of IoT devices and appliances [35] is increasing by each year and it was 6382, 8387, 11197 million devices and appliances in the years 2016, 2017, 2018 respectively and is likely to be 20415 million IoT devices and appliances in the year 2020. This growth of IoT will create new job profiles for managing data and hence the jobs. The upcoming smart cities will have to say e. g. traffic, water and electricity management through IoT devices and appliances.
In the next 5 to 10 years, we expect more than 30 billion to 100 billion IoT devices and appliances. We may have sensors almost everywhere. it is more like data management story. We do have a security issue here as smart devices and hence new job profiles for low skilled as well as high skilled jobs.
Marketing & Advertising or Media & Publishing and white collared jobs (General)
Every Marketer & Advertiser or media and publishing [36] executive should not fear AI as it will take away their job but should take it as an opportunity. Machines cannot take creative and business understanding roles that involve a high level of social intelligence and original ideas.
Keeping human in the loop is the way to ensure that a Marketer & Advertiser or media and publishing job holders is that they do not relinquish all responsibility to AI/ML. The introduction of new tools and automated processes will change the job role slightly; adapting now will allow marketers & advertiser or media & publishing to lead the way. AI/ML requires human input, so there will be a demand for experts in specific areas to work with technology rather than oppose technology’s introduction.
As per Kai-Fu Lee, the former head of Google research in China and a top tech investor [18], AI applied to different domains—and turned into products—will generate phenomenal value. In my view, it may also generate some job profiles, particularly, white collar jobs.
Shopping and Retail
In the US alone, 5,321 brick-and-mortar stores closed, but 3,262 [37] new stores opened roughly during the same period. It means that there were job losses. It is feared that globally we may lose about 50% of retail jobs in the year 2018. Available on the App Store of Apple, IKEA Place [39] is one augmented reality-based product where one can place any IKEA product in 3D virtual space in your room, true to scale so you can make sure it’s of the right size, design, and functionality for your room. This approach will quite literally put the shopping experience in the customers’ hands. Almost all forward-thinking retail brands [38] embrace Augmented reality or AR, in brief, technology to improve the customer experience {see figure 3}.
Figure 3: AR technology into the customer experience [38]
AR for retail - Blippar [41] has a platform one can build upon but one should also see at their partnership program before taking any decision. AR provides customers’ with the best of both worlds experience. E.g. one gets pleasure of online shopping i.e. he/she gets chosen to select product, convenience to shopping through his/her mobile, view ratings and reviews of other customers of the product he /she wishes to purchase and also the benefits of being in store — although a virtual presence only — he/she can also browse the product, even trying things on and also chat to store staff simultaneously if he/she wishes to.
Invisible pop-up store [40] can be set up anywhere in the world or in any Geolocation and seen only by raising your mobile if you are in the right zone. Also branded as Air stores are set up and used for promoting a few selected brands only.
This will also add a new profile of jobs in stores which does not exist today.
Summary
It may be noted that the introduction of computers also took some low-skill routine [26] jobs. AI/ML technology may not create as many jobs as it may be responsible to hit as it may not only hit low-end jobs but may also hit high-end skilled jobs. The replacement machine or robot will produce both high accuracy and enhanced productivity as compared to human doing the job. Thus, it will result in cost gains for the company.
The report entitled 'Future of Jobs in India' study, commissioned jointly by FICCI - the voice of India's business, industry and National Association for Software NASSCOM [2], a not-for-profit industry association, says that advanced technologies on 5 key manufacturing and service sectors in India. These sectors are IT, retail, financial services, textile & apparel, and automobile. These sectors will create the bulk of jobs in India. As per this report in the next 5 years, 54 million Indians will hold jobs which do not exist today.
Of the 1.8 million jobs will vanish [26] due to advances in AI /ML globally, but 2.3 million jobs are likely to be created by the year 2020 as per Gartner and CapGemini’s [27] Digital Transformation Institute.
AI/ML impact with respect to job losses will be seen in finance, transportation, defense, and energy management areas. The internet of things (IoT) will be used to connect remote sensors, people and businesses [28]. Hopefully, this may create some new jobs. The vulnerability of a job to automation is determined by the fact whether the job function is routine manual or cognitive or not? The cognitive jobs such as perceiving, reasoning, learning, problem-solving and/or interacting with the environment, in other words, the machine acts like a human brain.
Will AI/ML become a Sky-net like super-intelligence and be a threat to humanity? The answer to this question may be’ no’, but one thing is for sure: AI/ML is on an unstoppable path and will be responsible for removal of all sort of routine and cognitive jobs, thus, transforming our lives in a big way.
References
[1] The impact on jobs: automation and anxiety
[2] Artificial Intelligence effect: 5 years from now, 54 million Indians will hold jobs unheard of today
[3] The 6 most in-demand AI jobs, and how to get them
[4] By 2020, Artificial Intelligence will create more jobs than it eliminates: Gartner
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/by-2020-artificial-intelligence-will-create-more-jobs-than-it-eliminates-gartner/articleshow/62053363.cms
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/by-2020-artificial-intelligence-will-create-more-jobs-than-it-eliminates-gartner/articleshow/62053363.cms
[5] How will automation affect jobs, skills, and wages?
[6] Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages
[7] Musk says Tesla pushed out 7,000 cars last week, meeting goal of 5,000 Model 3s
[8] Will AI Revolution Lead to Mass Unemployment?
[9] The U.S. will be hit worse by job automation than other major economies
https://www.recode.net/2017/3/25/15051308/us-uk-germany-japan-robot-job-automation
[10] Telecom sector may lead to 60,000 job losses at 2018 end
http://yourmoneywise.in/2018/11/04/telecom-sector-may-lead-to-60000- job-losses-at-2018-end/
[11] Jobs and Robots: 25 Countries Ranked On Job Loss Potential from Automation, Robotics, and AI
[12] Surprisingly, These 10 Professional Jobs Are Under Threat From Big Data
[13] Self-driving cars will destroy a lot of jobs—they’ll also create a lot
[14] Artificial Intelligence Cannot Replace Doctors, Can Work Alongside Them
[15] 3D printers and telemedicine are just some of the technologies that have entered the clinical environment.
[16] 5 ways robots are delivering health care in Saskatchewan
[17] Robotic Nurses
[18] Is Technology About to Decimate White-Collar Work?
[19] Inside the Health Care Eco system: Strategic Insights for Business Leaders
[20] Accelerating growth of machine learning, genomics and precision medicine, digital technologies, changes in reimbursement and a renewed focus on the patient at the centre of care.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2831278/
[21] 17 Portable Health Gadgets That Can Change Your Life
[22[ Five STEWPS to mobile strategy success
[23] AI will change Radiology, but it won’t replace radiologist
[24] Job cuts in healthcare, pharma industries soar in 2017: 3 things to know
[25] AI & Big Data: The Future of the Digital World
[26] AI will eliminate 1.8M jobs but create 2.3M by 2020, claims Gartner
[27] 83% of companies using AI said it is creating new jobs, but there's a catch
[28] Will robots and AI take your job? The economic and political consequences of automation
[29] What will telcos do about the 30% of workers AI is going to displace?
[30] Workers in These Five Industries Will Be the First to Lose Their Jobs to Automation
[31] Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI): Healthcare – Part Six
chttp://newblogrgs10.blogspot.com/2017/05/machine-learning-ml-and-artificial_26.html
[32] IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech: Top 10 Technology Trends for 2019
[33] Automation threatens 800 million jobs, but technology could still save us, says report
https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/30/16719092/automation-robots-jobs-global-800-million-forecas
[34] Brain-Machine Interface Offers Hope to the Paralysed
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#all/WhctKFMhGBmTxwFNTGgMPKxgXNvzVKVCltJnDGqcxPdFtZBBVGDPvvKtXFMRXqRrkRbZbvv
[35] What is the IoT? Everything you need to know about the Internet of Things right now
[36] Rise of the machines: are Robots after your job?
[37] Retail Job Apocalypse, Everyone Must Go!
[38] How These Retailers Use Augmented Reality to Enhance the Customer Experience
[39] IKEA website
[40] The Strangest Shops: Airwalk Invisible Pop-Up Store
[41] Blippar website
https://www.blippar.com/ar-studio/augmented-reality-retail
